Hard or Soft Landing?

The cycle's not cycling...

Welcome to the free midweek edition of MktContext. I am a professional money manager who runs a $5B fund and loves writing about the stock market. Subscribe to receive free weekly insights in your inbox!

Rebound starts

SPX and QQQ rebound in earnest to start the week. We still think last week’s bloodbath was a technical unwind in a low-liquidity seasonal period and not supported by economic data. Be warned, as the next 7 weeks have historically been weak in election years so expect some chop.

Our stop loss came close to triggering but not quite. The 100d moving average supported the SPX. For those who follow intraday timeframes, there is a “higher low” structure being formed, reinforcing the up move. However, no breadth thrust or follow-through day (indicating concerted bullish action) has formed yet. We remain fully invested, awaiting the next signal.