Debunking Economists (Plus Deep Dive on Google)

Why people still call for recession

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False checklists

I am continually amazed by the number of smart people calling for an imminent recession. Economists at every major bank have a “checklist” they use with multiple indicators to gauge a recession. Many have been sounding the recession alarm for a long time now. Let’s dive deeper into each indicator.

The first one that comes up is the yield curve. The argument goes, every yield curve inversion (i.e. long-term interest r…